Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions
In the final episode of Risky Business, Nate and Maria check in on the predictions they made back in January for 2025, and then talk about what they think might…
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Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his new book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Most Recent Episode
Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions
In the final episode of Risky Business, Nate and Maria check in on the predictions they made back in January for 2025, and then talk about what they think might…
Why Are Some Countries Happier Than Others?
Every year, the World Happiness Report comes out and the Nordic countries rejoice. Just kidding – sort of. Small, homogenous countries like Finland (2025’s happiest country) often top the list.…
Best of Risky Business: Building a Championship Team (with Daryl Morey)
We’re closing out the year with some of our (and your) favorite episodes to date. First up: Nate and Maria’s conversation with Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey…
What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker
Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their…
Frisky Business: Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Lizza, and Journalistic Ethics
Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir,…
The Prisoners’ Dilemma of Performance-Enhancing Drugs
This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact…
NO LIMIT, Some AI… Poker’s Documentary-Gate
The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other…
Risky Business Live! How To Read People In Poker And Beyond
Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker tables with a…
Will The Epstein Files Sink Trump?
After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this…
Society is betting on AI – and the outcomes aren’t looking good (with Nate Soares)
Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer…
The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown
Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over…
Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now
From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven…
What Happens in Vegas…Might Tell Us Something About the US Economy
With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience.…
What to Make of the NBA Sports Betting Scandal
Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over…
Lessons From A Marathoner (with Nicholas Thompson)
Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running…
What Democrats Should Take from No Kings Protests
Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of…
What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now
The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,”…
Good Call/Bad Call: Bari Weiss as CBS’s New Editor-in-Chief
Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on…
What Jane Goodall Teaches Us About Outsider Thought
Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and…
With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale
Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that…
Sleep, Track, Don’t Multitask: How To Succeed In Online Poker
Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and…
Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election?
Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates.…
Did the LA Clippers Take a Page from the Mob?
The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around…
Presidents Have Tried To Censor the Media Before…and It Backfired
Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC.…
When You Come at the King: Holding Presidents to Account (with Elie Honig)
It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics,…
Can The Center Hold After Charlie Kirk? Plus: Shutdown Strategy
Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a…
Is There Really A Crisis of Masculinity?
Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals.…
Determinative Decisions Before Birth: Genes and Names
Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive…
The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Boston Rob)
This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No…
Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable
As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering.…
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI?
This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and…
America’s New AI Strategy
With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on…
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel)
To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it…
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s…
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world.…
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal…
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved,…
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system…
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy.…
An Elon Musk Report Card
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus,…
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker
ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss…
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign…
What Should Colleges Do about ChatGPT?
Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and…
Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)
Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker…
The Conclave, Negotiation Tips, and Would You Rather
The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal…
The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump
This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in…
Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?
This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk…
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs
Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress –…
The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time
This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia…
Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA
This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major…
March Madness Bracket Extravaganza
This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento…
China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake
Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How…
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how…
Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events
This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about…
Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman)
This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence,…
Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters?
Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what…
Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss
Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of…
Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions
In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this…
Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action
What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk…
Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster
Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about…
Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions
Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will…
Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing Risk with Restaurateur Henry Rich
Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin,…
Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes
Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make…
The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first…
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies
Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they…
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel
Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also:…
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions
Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the…
Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?
Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a…
How Trump Won
Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice…
What to Look for on Election Day
On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and…
The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns
What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of…
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss…
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention…
The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking…
How to Win Bets and Influence Elections
Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making…
Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model
Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate…
Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?
Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction…
Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker
Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in…
Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman
Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when…
Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election
Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel…
Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC
This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips. For…
Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About His Book)
Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong,…
Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins)
Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to…
Kamala Mode, Misinformation, and Winning the WSOP
Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that…
Betting on Kamala Harris (with special guest Matt Glassman)
Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate.…
Conspiracy Theories, J.D. Vance, and Jury Duty
Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And…
How to Convince Biden to Quit
Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race. Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate…
How to Gamble Like a Chess Player, with Jennifer Shahade
Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost…
The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out
In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss…
Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about…
Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate…
Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of…
Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals
This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series…
WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds
Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain…
A Backup for Biden
Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news…
Lessons from the Final Table
Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the…
Coming Soon… Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Launching on May 16, Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players.…
The Hosts
Nate Silver
Nate Silver, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the founder and former editor-in-chief (2008-2023) of FiveThirtyEight, which was published by The New York Times, ESPN, and ABC News. FiveThirtyEight…
Maria Konnikova
Maria Konnikova, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the author, most recently, of The Biggest Bluff, a New York Times bestseller, one of the Times’ 100 Notable Books of…
